1
00:00:01,333 --> 00:00:05,056
I have talked a bunch about the Drake equation or our own version of the drake equation

2
00:00:05,056 --> 00:00:09,000
that starts with the number of stars in the galaxy.

3
00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:10,862
But I haven't given it a shot yet

4
00:00:10,862 --> 00:00:13,487
I haven't tried my own attempt at thinking about

5
00:00:13,487 --> 00:00:16,071
how many detectable civilizations there are

6
00:00:16,071 --> 00:00:18,267
So lets actually do that here

7
00:00:18,267 --> 00:00:26,467
so lets just assume there are one hundred billion stars

8
00:00:26,467 --> 00:00:28,867
so that's my first term right over there

9
00:00:28,867 --> 00:00:36,975
lets say that one fourth will develop planets

10
00:00:36,975 --> 00:00:40,754
and lets say of the solar system that develop planets

11
00:00:40,754 --> 00:00:50,533
on average 0.1 are capable of sustaining life

12
00:00:50,533 --> 00:00:53,667
or you will have one planet for every ten of these

13
00:00:53,667 --> 00:00:55,067
solar systems with planets

14
00:00:55,067 --> 00:00:56,148
that's just my assumption there

15
00:00:56,148 --> 00:00:57,923
I don't know if that's right

16
00:00:57,923 --> 00:01:01,405
now lets multiply that times the fraction of these

17
00:01:01,405 --> 00:01:04,154
planets capable of sustaining life that

18
00:01:04,154 --> 00:01:05,723
actually will get life

19
00:01:05,723 --> 00:01:07,344
And I don't know what that is

20
00:01:07,375 --> 00:01:08,831
but I hinted in previous videos that

21
00:01:08,831 --> 00:01:11,241
life is one of those things that it seems as if you have

22
00:01:11,241 --> 00:01:13,005
all the right ingredients it's so robust that you

23
00:01:13,005 --> 00:01:15,221
have life at these underwater volcanoes

24
00:01:15,221 --> 00:01:18,333
you have bacteria that can process all sorts of weird things

25
00:01:18,333 --> 00:01:20,538
so lets say that probability is pretty high

26
00:01:20,538 --> 00:01:22,800
lets say that is fifty percent

27
00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,133
or half of the planets capable of getting life

28
00:01:26,133 --> 00:01:27,533
actually do have life

29
00:01:27,533 --> 00:01:29,631
I would guess that might even be higher

30
00:01:29,631 --> 00:01:30,779
but once again

31
00:01:30,779 --> 00:01:31,733
just a guess

32
00:01:31,733 --> 00:01:33,631
now we have to think about

33
00:01:33,631 --> 00:01:37,271
of the life what fraction becomes intelligent

34
00:01:37,271 --> 00:01:40,569
what becomes intelligent over some point in the history

35
00:01:40,569 --> 00:01:43,492
well I will say its a tenth

36
00:01:43,492 --> 00:01:45,590
well maybe if the asteroid didn't kill the dinosaurs

37
00:01:45,590 --> 00:01:47,779
then it wouldn't have happened on earth

38
00:01:47,779 --> 00:01:50,733
or maybe we might just have had very intelligent dinosaurs around

39
00:01:50,779 --> 00:01:52,052
we don't know

40
00:01:52,052 --> 00:01:54,390
so maybe there might be other forms of intelligent

41
00:01:54,390 --> 00:01:56,569
life that we haven't fully appreciated

42
00:01:56,569 --> 00:01:58,795
dolphins are good candidates

43
00:01:58,795 --> 00:02:01,800
some people believe that octopuses

44
00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:04,333
because they have such flexible arms

45
00:02:04,333 --> 00:02:07,800
there's a theory that they could develop eventually

46
00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:09,200
the ability to kind of

47
00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:11,333
one day if their brains mature

48
00:02:11,333 --> 00:02:12,333
and all the rest

49
00:02:12,333 --> 00:02:14,467
make tools the same way primitive primates

50
00:02:14,467 --> 00:02:17,200
eventually were able to have larger brain sizes

51
00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:18,702
and actually manipulate things to make tools

52
00:02:18,702 --> 00:02:19,600
so who knows

53
00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:20,154
I don't want to get into all that

54
00:02:20,154 --> 00:02:23,913
so there's a one in ten chance that you get intelligent life

55
00:02:23,913 --> 00:02:27,800
and then assuming that intelligent life shows up

56
00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,133
what fraction is going to become detectable

57
00:02:31,133 --> 00:02:32,867
I don't know

58
00:02:32,867 --> 00:02:36,000
I don't know whether dolphins will ever communicate

59
00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:37,800
via radio or not

60
00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:44,605
so lets just say that is another one in ten chance

61
00:02:44,605 --> 00:02:48,138
or I will say 0.1

62
00:02:48,138 --> 00:02:51,575
and then we have to multiply times the detectable

63
00:02:51,575 --> 00:02:52,590
life of the civilization

64
00:02:52,590 --> 00:02:53,800
on average

65
00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:57,200
once again huge assumptions being made here

66
00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:59,277
but the detectable life of a civilization

67
00:02:59,277 --> 00:03:03,502
let me just put it at ten thousand years

68
00:03:03,502 --> 00:03:05,000
either they destroy themselves

69
00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,369
or they go beyond the radio type of communication

70
00:03:08,369 --> 00:03:09,841
electromagnetic type of communication

71
00:03:09,841 --> 00:03:11,933
maybe they start all sorts of weird wacky things

72
00:03:11,933 --> 00:03:14,236
probably won't even take ten thousand years

73
00:03:14,236 --> 00:03:15,000
to even progress at that

74
00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:16,323
might take less time

75
00:03:16,323 --> 00:03:18,375
but lets just do this for the sake of fun

76
00:03:18,375 --> 00:03:20,687
and then the lifespan of your average star

77
00:03:20,687 --> 00:03:23,236
that's probably one of the things that we have the best sense of

78
00:03:23,236 --> 00:03:27,769
so on average lets put it at ten billion years

79
00:03:27,769 --> 00:03:29,385
so lets calculate all of this

80
00:03:29,385 --> 00:03:32,292
lets get my handy TI 85 out

81
00:03:32,292 --> 00:03:34,559
and so we're going to have one hundred billion

82
00:03:34,559 --> 00:03:37,000
thats one times ten to the ninth

83
00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,056
sorry no thats one hundred times ten to the ninth

84
00:03:40,056 --> 00:03:41,364
so let me clear it

85
00:03:41,364 --> 00:03:43,652
or you can have one times ten to the eleventh

86
00:03:43,652 --> 00:03:48,769
that is a hundred billion times 0.25

87
00:03:48,769 --> 00:04:03,979
times 0.1 times 0.5 times 0.1 times 0.1 again

88
00:04:03,979 --> 00:04:06,938
times ten thousand divided by ten billion

89
00:04:06,938 --> 00:04:15,836
so times ten thousand divided by ten billion

90
00:04:15,836 --> 00:04:18,554
so thats one "e" ten

91
00:04:18,554 --> 00:04:20,615
one times ten to the tenth power

92
00:04:20,615 --> 00:04:21,856
one with ten zeros

93
00:04:21,856 --> 00:04:23,133
so lets see what we get

94
00:04:23,133 --> 00:04:26,118
we get 12.5

95
00:04:26,118 --> 00:04:27,185
which is kind of a neat number

96
00:04:27,185 --> 00:04:29,144
but you know these are heavily dependent on this

97
00:04:29,144 --> 00:04:31,702
so we'll say that given all these assumptions

98
00:04:31,702 --> 00:04:37,575
there should be 12.5 detectable civilizations

99
00:04:37,575 --> 00:04:41,733
in our galaxy right now

100
00:04:41,733 --> 00:04:44,682
so the questions is why aren't we detecting it

101
00:04:44,682 --> 00:04:48,513
maybe their radio signals or electromagnetic waves

102
00:04:48,513 --> 00:04:51,477
are getting to us but we can't differentiate

103
00:04:51,477 --> 00:04:52,769
it from noise right now

104
00:04:52,769 --> 00:04:54,144
and that's what the SETI project is all about

105
00:04:54,144 --> 00:04:57,052
trying to keep track of all this information

106
00:04:57,052 --> 00:05:01,708
all the radio and electromagnetic waves coming from

107
00:05:01,708 --> 00:05:03,148
outer space and towards earth

108
00:05:03,148 --> 00:05:06,071
and seeing if any of them actually have

109
00:05:06,071 --> 00:05:07,421
any non-noise signal

110
00:05:07,421 --> 00:05:08,990
that actually look like they are being generated

111
00:05:08,990 --> 00:05:11,333
by some type of intelligent civilization

112
00:05:11,333 --> 00:05:12,738
so maybe we are getting them

113
00:05:12,738 --> 00:05:13,959
and just not detecting them

114
00:05:13,959 --> 00:05:15,702
or maybe something else is at play

115
00:05:15,702 --> 00:05:17,636
maybe we have over estimated one of these

116
00:05:17,636 --> 00:05:19,287
maybe there is a lot of life

117
00:05:19,287 --> 00:05:22,308
but maybe they are not using electromagnetic

118
00:05:22,308 --> 00:05:23,769
waves to communicate

119
00:05:23,769 --> 00:05:25,887
maybe that's some sort of primitive way of communicating

120
00:05:25,887 --> 00:05:28,205
maybe they start doing telepathy or something crazy

121
00:05:28,205 --> 00:05:30,118
or they started using some quantum thing

122
00:05:30,118 --> 00:05:33,185
that allows them to communicate more directly without

123
00:05:33,185 --> 00:05:34,810
having to wait for the speed of light

124
00:05:34,810 --> 00:05:37,692
they might view that as a very slow way to communicate

125
00:05:37,692 --> 00:05:39,929
and it is frankly a slow way if your trying to communicate

126
00:05:39,929 --> 00:05:42,738
across solar systems and stars and planets

127
00:05:42,738 --> 00:05:44,944
or even across galaxies one can imagine

128
00:05:44,944 --> 00:05:49,292
so maybe we are in a transition state of communication

129
00:05:49,292 --> 00:05:50,975
that electromagnetic waves

130
00:05:50,975 --> 00:05:53,431
radio and all the rest is just a transition state

131
00:05:53,431 --> 00:05:55,533
maybe in a hundred years we'll figure out another

132
00:05:55,533 --> 00:05:58,354
better way that's not detectable in our traditional ways

133
00:05:58,354 --> 00:06:00,892
maybe we are being bombarded by another type of

134
00:06:00,892 --> 00:06:03,159
communication mechanism which we are not ready

135
00:06:03,159 --> 00:06:04,348
to perceive yet

136
00:06:04,348 --> 00:06:05,241
who knows

137
00:06:05,241 --> 00:06:07,821
but its just a fun thought experiment to just say that

138
00:06:07,821 --> 00:06:09,979
hey given these assumptions there should be at least

139
00:06:09,979 --> 00:06:11,867
a couple of civilizations or a handful of

140
00:06:11,867 --> 00:06:14,800
civilizations that we might be able to detect